2023 Gombe State gubernatorial election

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2023 Gombe State gubernatorial election
← 2019 18 March 2023 2027 →
Registered1,575,794
 
PDP
Nominee Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya Mohammed Jibrin Barde
Party APC PDP
Running mate Manasseh Daniel Jatau Timothy Danlele
Governor before election

Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya
APC

Elected Governor

Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya
APC

The 2023 Gombe State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Gombe State, concurrent with elections to the Gombe State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent APC Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya is running for a second term and was renominated by his party.

The primaries, scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022, resulted in Yahaya being renominated by the All Progressives Congress unopposed on 26 May while the Peoples Democratic Party nominated businessman Mohammed Jibrin Barde on 25 May.[4][5]

Electoral system[edit]

The Governor of Gombe State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background[edit]

Gombe State is a small, diverse northeastern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector, desertification, and some inter-ethnic violence.

Politically, the state's 2019 elections were categorized by a large swing towards the state APC. In federal elections, Buhari held the state for the APC while the APC swept all senate seats by gaining two PDP-held seats. Similarly, the APC gained two PDP-held House seats to sweep all House of Representatives elections. On the state level, the APC gained the governorship and the majority in the House of Assembly. The 2019 elections also bridged the political divide between the diverse, Christian-majority Southern region and the mainly Hausa and Fulani, Muslim-majority Northern and Central regions as the former region moved towards the APC in tandem with the latter two regions.[6] During the 2019 to 2023 term, defections rose the PDP's numbers in the federal House while increasing APC numbers in the state assembly.

Over the course of Yahaya's term, his administration stated focuses included education, security, healthcare, and agriculture development. In terms of his performance, Yahaya was praised for healthcare development and high ease of doing business but was criticized for do-nothingness during his first year in office, lack of regular and clean drinking water, the arrests of his critics, and poor handling of the 2021 Mai Tangale appointment which led to deadly religious clashes in Billiri.[7][8][9][10][11][12]

Primary elections[edit]

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][13]

All Progressives Congress[edit]

The year ahead of the APC primary was categorized by a party crisis as the state APC was split between supporters of Senator and former Governor Mohammed Danjuma Goje on one side and the other side supporting incumbent Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya.[14] The crisis forced party officials to take a side and even became violent when an attack on Goje's convoy killed 5 people in November 2021.[15] The crisis also led to some defections from the party, notably when 2019 gubernatorial candidate Jamil Isyaku Gwamna and House of Representatives member Yaya Bauchi Tango both went to the PDP. Although neither Goje nor Yahaya themselves defected, analysts stated that the prolonged party crisis and others' defections could to hurt the APC in the general election.[16][17]

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[18] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[19] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[20][21][22][23]

On the primary date, Yahaya was the sole candidate and won the nomination by voice vote unopposed.[4] In his acceptance speech, Yahaya thanked the party and President Muhammadu Buhari while pledging to continue the work of his administration.[24]

Nominated[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

APC primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya Voice vote 100.00%
Total votes N/A 100.00%
Turnout 563 98.77%

People's Democratic Party[edit]

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[27] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[28][29]

Ahead of the primary, the main questions were around which candidate would receive the support of de facto Gombe PDP leader Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo along with those perceived as having helped the party since entering opposition in 2019.[30] On the primary date, the six candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Mohammed Jibrin emerging as the PDP nominee after results showed Jibrin winning just under 50% of the delegates' votes.[5] In late June, Jibrin picked Timothy Danlele—a retired civil servant—as his running mate.

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Candidates' vote share

  Muhammad Jibrin Barde (48.78%)
  Jamil Isyaku Gwamna (36.28%)
  Adamu Suleiman (5.49%)
  Abubakar Ali Gombe (5.18%)
  Other candidates (4.26%)
PDP primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Mohammed Jibrin Barde 160 48.78%
PDP Jamil Isyaku Gwamna 119 36.28%
PDP Adamu Suleiman 18 5.49%
PDP Abubakar Ali Gombe 17 5.18%
PDP Babayo Ardo 13 3.96%
PDP Gimba Ya'u Kumo 1 0.30%
Total votes 328 100.00%

Minor parties[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Immediately after the primaries in June 2022, observers stated that the nominees were focusing on unifying their respective parties. Although the main feud between Yahaya and Senator Mohammed Danjuma Goje ended before the primaries, Goje's indifference to campaigning for Yahaya if he remained aggrieved began to be viewed as a potential liability for the APC by pundits while analysts noted that the PDP was concerned about the internal APC truce.[37] A few months later in November, analysis again focused on internal party divides as Goje remained absent from Yahaya's campaign while Jibrin had sided with Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike in his dispute with PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar.[38] The PDP divide had greatly escalated after a leaked audio alleged showed Jibrin insulting opposing PDP figures coupled with pre-existing tension between Jibrin and primary runner-up Jamil Isyaku Gwamna.[39] Despite reconciliation attempts, Gwamna left the PDP in early December with groups of supporters to rejoin the APC amid a wave of departures from the PDP throughout December.[40][41]

Just days after the presidential election—in which PDP nominee Atiku Abubakar won Gombe State, Yahaya issued a broad apology to the state's Christian community during a meeting organised by the Gombe CAN chapter. In the presidential election, predominantly Christian areas like Billiri had mainly voted for PDP nominee Atiku Abubakar and LP nominee Peter Obi in the wake of years of criticism of the Gombe APC for alleged anti-Christian discrimination, most notably during the 2020 Chief Judge scandal[a] and the 2021 Mai Tangale crisis.[b][42] Nevertheless, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Jibrin to win based on "events in the presidential election and the end of Muhammadu Buhari’s influence on northern politics."[43] On the other hand, a piece from Leadership noted that Khamisu Mailantarki (NNPP) could split the opposition vote.[44]

Projections[edit]

Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[c][45] Lean Jibrin 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[d][43] 		Jibrin 2 March 2023

Conduct[edit]

Electoral timetable[edit]

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[46] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[47]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[e] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[f] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election[edit]

Results[edit]

2023 Gombe State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
AA Nuhu Milah
ADP Jibrin Suleiman
APP Mohammed Adamu
AAC Aliyu Danmacca Adamu
ADC Bala Nafiu
APM Bello Abubakar Muhammad
APC Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya
BP Abdulhamid Sadiq
LP Keftin Esau Amuga
New Nigeria Peoples Party Khamisu Mailantarki
NRM Abubakar Sanusi Sulaiman
PDP Mohammed Jibrin
SDP Kelmi Jacob Lazarus
ZLP Muhammad Gana Aliyu
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district[edit]

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya
APC 		Mohammed Jibrin
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Gombe Central Senatorial District[g] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Gombe North Senatorial District[h] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Gombe South Senatorial District[i] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency[edit]

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya
APC 		Mohammed Jibrin
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Akko Federal Constituency[j] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Balanga/Billiri Federal Constituency[k] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Dukku/Nafada Federal Constituency[l] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye Federal Constituency[m] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kaltungo/Shongom Federal Constituency[n] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Yamaltu/Deba Federal Constituency[o] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area[edit]

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya
APC 		Mohammed Jibrin
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Akko 50919 % 36759 % TBD % TBD
Balanga 25341 % 20085 % TBD % TBD %
Billiri 14752 % 23066 % TBD % TBD %
Dukku 35207 % 14181 % TBD % TBD %
Funakaye 30371 % 17332 % TBD % TBD %
Gombe 58645 % 31605 % TBD % TBD %
Kaltungo 21015 % 21321 % TBD % TBD %
Kwami 33956 % 17454 % TBD % TBD %
Nafada 15025 % 9378 % TBD % TBD %
Shongom 13609 % 13412 % TBD % TBD %
Yamaltu/Deba 15443 % 28538 % TBD % TBD %
Totals 342,821 % 204,593 % TBD % TBD %

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ The Yahaya administration allegedly refused to nominate the state's most senior judge — Justice Beatrice Iliya — to be state Chief Judge due to her Christian faith.
  2. ^ Yahaya's selection of a Muslim to become traditional leader over a mainly-Christian area which sparked months of protests and unrest.
  3. ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  4. ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  5. ^ The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[48]
  6. ^ The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[49]
  7. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Akko and Yamaltu/Deba.
  8. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Dukku, Funakaye, Gombe, Kwami, and Nafada.
  9. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Balanga, Billiri, Kaltungo, and Shongom.
  10. ^ Comprising the local government area of Akko.
  11. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Balanga and Billiri.
  12. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Dukku and Nafada.
  13. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gombe, Kwami, and Funakaye.
  14. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kaltungo and Shongom.
  15. ^ Comprising the local government area of Yamaltu/Deba.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Oyekanmi, Rotimi (26 February 2022). "It's Official: 2023 Presidential, National Assembly Elections to Hold Feb 25". INEC News. Retrieved 27 February 2022.
  2. ^ a b Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  3. ^ Suleiman, Qosim. "It's Official: INEC postpones Saturday's governorship, state assembly elections". Premium Times. Retrieved 15 March 2023.
  4. ^ a b c d Azubuike, Chima (26 May 2022). "Gombe gov wins second term ticket by voice votes". The Punch. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i Mu’azu, Rebecca. "Gombe Primaries: Jibrin Barde Picks PDP Governorship Ticket". Voice of Nigeria. Gombe. Archived from the original on 26 May 2022. Retrieved 7 June 2022.
  6. ^ Sule, Babayo (30 September 2019). "The 2019 General Election in Gombe State: An Analysis of the Voting Pattern, Issues, Impacts and its Implications". International Journal of Social Sciences Perspectives. 4 (2): 62–75. doi:10.33094/7.2017.2019.42.62.75. S2CID 211463973. Retrieved 13 April 2022.
  7. ^ Onwuamaeze, Dike; Awofadeji, Segun. "Gombe, Sokoto, Jigawa Lead in Ease of Doing Business Survey". ThisDay. Retrieved 7 April 2022.
  8. ^ "ICYMI: Top 5, Bottom 5; How first term Governors fared in their first year (May, 2020)". Ripples Nigeria. 17 June 2020. Retrieved 7 April 2022. Inuwa's one year in office can best be rated as less than average. Though he lays claims to initiating a couple of projects, much of what is visible are traceable to his predecessor, former Governor Dankwambo. For residents of Gombe, especially Gombe metropolis, access to potable water has been herculean, as they have continued to depend on water vendors to survive.
  9. ^ Azubuike, Chima (22 December 2021). "Gombe defends detention of govt critic". The Punch. Retrieved 7 April 2022.
  10. ^ Abdulaziz, Abdulaziz (March 2020). "Two Nigerian politicians detained for 'insulting governor'". Premium Times. Retrieved 7 April 2022.
  11. ^ Azubuike, Chima (24 May 2022). "Gombe gov intolerant of criticism, publisher shares ordeal". The Punch. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
  12. ^ Ayitogo, Nasir (11 December 2021). "SPECIAL REPORT: The true story of fatal religious crisis in Billiri, a peaceful Gombe community". Premium Times. Retrieved 7 April 2022.
  13. ^ James, Dominic. "Primaries: INEC Grants Parties Six Extra Days, Timetable Remains Unchanged". INEC News. Retrieved 28 May 2022.
  14. ^ Ndujihe, Clifford (25 November 2021). "Goje, Inuwa's feud tears APC apart in Gombe". Vanguard. Retrieved 11 April 2022.
  15. ^ Aborisade, Sunday (6 November 2021). "Five killed, many injured in Goje, Gombe gov's men rampage". The Punch. Retrieved 11 April 2022.
  16. ^ Okon-Ekong, Nseobong. "No End in Sight to Gombe APC Crisis". ThisDay. Retrieved 11 April 2022.
  17. ^ Daniel, Son (20 March 2022). "2023: Gombe APC still in disarray – Goje insists". Vanguard. Retrieved 11 April 2022.
  18. ^ Odunsi, Wale. "2023: APC extends sale of forms, fixes dates to elect delegates". Daily Post. Retrieved 7 May 2022.
  19. ^ Nseyen, Nsikak. "2023: APC fixes new date for governorship primaries, others". Daily Post. Retrieved 11 May 2022.
  20. ^ Majeed, Bakare (20 April 2022). "UPDATED: 2023: APC fixes presidential forms for N100 million, adopts indirect primaries". Premium Times. Retrieved 20 April 2022.
  21. ^ Angbulu, Stephen; Ayeni, Victor; Dada, Peter; Naku, Dennis; Ede, Raphael (21 April 2022). "Presidential primary: APC silent on zoning, Nigerians condemn N100m nomination fee". The Punch. Retrieved 21 April 2022.
  22. ^ APC Nigeria [@OfficialAPCNg] (May 11, 2022). "NEW DATES" (Tweet). Retrieved 12 May 2022 – via Twitter.
  23. ^ APC Nigeria [@OfficialAPCNg] (May 18, 2022). "ADJUSTED TIMETABLE" (Tweet). Retrieved 21 May 2022 – via Twitter.
  24. ^ Itodo, Yemi (26 May 2022). "Governor Inuwa wins APC guber primaries in Gombe". Daily Post. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
  25. ^ Azubuike, Chima (2 August 2021). "Gombe gov declares second term bid, confident of victory". The Punch. Retrieved 2 August 2021.
  26. ^ Azubuike, Chima (30 March 2022). "114 Gombe APC wards sue Pantami, want minister contest election". The Punch. Retrieved 30 March 2022.
  27. ^ Angbulu, Stephen (21 April 2022). "2023: PDP extends sale of forms for fourth time". The Punch. Retrieved 21 April 2022.
  28. ^ Official PDP Nigeria [@OfficialPDPNig] (May 5, 2022). "2023 General Elections: @OfficialPDPNig updated Time Table and Schedule of Activities for the 2023 general elections. See below" (Tweet). Retrieved 1 May 2022 – via Twitter.
  29. ^ Ukaibe, Chibuzo. "2023: PDP Fixes New Date For Gov'ship Primaries". Leadership. Retrieved 21 May 2022.
  30. ^ "GOMBE 2023: Factors that'll shape PDP primaries". Vanguard. Retrieved 30 June 2022.
  31. ^ "Gombe 2023: Group Squeals Over Serving Perm Sec's Participation In PDP Screening". Vanguard. 7 May 2022. Retrieved 8 May 2022.
  32. ^ Bukar, Muhammad (23 February 2022). "Jamil Gwamna rejoins PDP, to contest Gombe governorship". Daily Post. Retrieved 28 February 2022.
  33. ^ Alowolodu, Akanji. "2023 Governorship Race: AA Picks Nuhu Milah As Gombe Candidate". Apex News Exclusive. Retrieved 7 October 2022.
  34. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x "FINAL LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR STATE ELECTIONS - Governorship & Houses of Assembly" (PDF). Independent National Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 October 2022.
  35. ^ Aramide, Mansur; Oyewole, Rauf (7 June 2022). "Mailantarki emerges Gombe NNPP guber candidate unopposed". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 June 2022.
  36. ^ Azubuike, Chima. "Gombe NNPP gov candidate names running mate". The Punch. Retrieved 8 August 2022.
  37. ^ Shittu, Sola. "2023: Gombe APC in race for survival". The Nation. Retrieved 5 July 2022.
  38. ^ Alli, Yusuf; Adeyemi, Kolade; Asishana, Justina; Oota, Linus; Adenuga, David; Shittu, Sola; Jimoh, Adekunle. "2023: Race to Government House (2)". The Nation. Retrieved 21 November 2022.
  39. ^ Shittu, Sola. "Gombe 2023: Many headaches of PDP candidate Barde". The Nation. Retrieved 27 November 2022.
  40. ^ Yaya, Haruna Gimba. "Gombe Politics: Jamil Gwamna, Supporters Dump PDP, Join APC". Daily Trust. Retrieved 10 December 2022.
  41. ^ Yaya, Haruna Gimba. "Defections Threaten PDP's Quest To Sack APC In Gombe". Daily Trust. Retrieved 31 December 2022.
  42. ^ Azubuike, Chima. "Gov Yahaya apologises to Christians in Gombe". The Punch. Retrieved 5 March 2023.
  43. ^ a b "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: Diminished interest in state elections will make for poor outcomes". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 16 March 2023.
  44. ^ "Presidential Election Results May Affect Guber Races In 10 States". Leadership. Retrieved 17 March 2023.
  45. ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Gubernatorial Elections: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 17 March 2023.
  46. ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  47. ^ "Schedule of Activities for 2023 General Election". ThisDay. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  48. ^ James, Dominic. "Primaries: INEC Grants Parties Six Extra Days, Timetable Remains Unchanged". INEC News. Retrieved 28 May 2022.
  49. ^ Suleiman, Qosim. "It's Official: INEC postpones Saturday's governorship, state assembly elections". Premium Times. Retrieved 15 March 2023.
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