2023 Oyo State gubernatorial election

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2023 Oyo State gubernatorial election
← 2019 18 March 2023 2027 →
Registered3,276,675
 
Nominee Seyi Makinde Teslim Folarin Adebayo Adelabu
Party PDP APC A
Running mate Bayo Lawal David Oluwafemi Okunlola Abiodun Ayanfemi Ayandele
Popular vote 563,756 256,685 38,357
Percentage 63.37% 28.86% 4.31%

Governor before election

Seyi Makinde
PDP

Elected Governor

Seyi Makinde
PDP

The 2023 Oyo State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Oyo State, concurrent with elections to the Oyo State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent PDP Governor Seyi Makinde was re-elected, winning by a % margin of victory over first runner-up and APC nominee—Senator Teslim Folarin.[4]

The primaries, scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022, resulted in Makinde being renominated by the Peoples Democratic Party by a wide margin on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Folarin—Senator for Oyo Central—on 26 May.[5][6] The next month, Adebayo Adelabu—the runner-up in the APC primary—obtained the Accord nomination.

Electoral system[edit]

The Governor of Oyo State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background[edit]

Oyo State is a large, Yoruba-majority southwestern state; the state has vast agricultural and service sectors but it faces large security issues from both inter-ethnic violence and conflict between herders and farmers along with a large number of out-of-school children.[7]

Politically, the 2019 elections in the state were categorized as a large swing towards the PDP as the party's presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar narrowly won the state after Buhari had won it in 2015, Makinde won the gubernatorial race by 17% of the vote, and the PDP gained a majority in the House of Assembly. For the Senate, the APC won back two Senate seats it lost through defections while the PDP gained a APC-held seat; in the House of Representatives, the APC won the majority of the seats.

Ahead of his term, Makinde's inauguration speech focused on ease of doing business, fighting poverty, education, agricultural development, disability rights, and healthcare.[8] In terms of his performance, Makinde was commended for a productive first 100 days, investing heavily in educational development, establishing the Oyo State Anti-Corruption Agency, and confirming that Muslim students could wear hijabs in school.[9][10][11][12][13][14] However, he was criticized for poor initial responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and October 2020 End SARS protests along with proposed handing over of Government College, Ibadan to the alumni association.[15][16][17]

Primary elections[edit]

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][18]

All Progressives Congress[edit]

Analysts viewed the APC gubernatorial primary as a likely contest between the preexisting major factions within the Oyo State APC, namely: the faction led by Oyo Central Senator Teslim Folarin and the Unity Forum which was backed by most other major state APC politicians including Oyo North Senator Abdulfatai Buhari and 2019 APC nominee Adebayo Adelabu. Tensions between the factions reached a head days before the APC national convention in March 2022 when the Unity Forum held a parallel party congress and elected separate leadership to the Folarin-supported bloc's congress;[19] although the national party ended up accepting the congress by Folarin's faction, tensions continued until an April reconciliation process between Buhari and Folarin which ended in a truce where Buhari dropped out of the gubernatorial race and Folarin supported Buhari's return bid to the senate.[20][21][22][23]

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[24] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[25] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[26][27][28][29]

Pre-primary analysis said the race was between the groups backing Folarin and Adelabu.[30] Hours before the primary's scheduled start, the primary committee abruptly postponed the election until 27 May due to "an influx of non-delegates into the venue and security reasons."[31] The next day, the candidates contested an indirect primary that ended in a win for Folarin after results showed him gaining just over 73% of the delegates' votes. In his acceptance speech, Folarin vowed to save the state from the "maladministration of the PDP-led government" and thanked delegates.[6] However, the internal party crisis did not end as Adelabu—the first runner-up who did not attend the primary—labeled the primary as a "charade" and left the party for Accord.[32][33]

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Candidates' vote share

  Teslim Folarin (73.16%)
  Adebayo Adelabu (25.08%)
  Other candidates (1.76%)
APC primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Teslim Folarin 954 73.16%
APC Adebayo Adelabu 327 25.08%
APC Akeem Agbaje 15 1.15%
APC Oyedele Hakeem Alao 6 0.46%
APC Azeez Adeduntan 2 0.15%
APC Adeniyi Akintola (withdrawn) 0 0.00%
Total votes 1,304 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 11 N/A
Turnout 1,315 74.93

People's Democratic Party[edit]

Despite rumors about a potential presidential campaign, Makinde declined to contest for the presidency and instead announced his campaign for re-election to the office of governor;[45] analysts state that he is the prohibitive favorite in the PDP gubernatorial primary.[21] However, the Oyo PDP underwent a series of internal disputes ahead of the election with the most major one being over Makinde's control of the state party and his "consensus" picks for various nominations.[46] Another issue was the break between Makinde and his deputy, Rauf Olaniyan; while Olaniyan ruled out a gubernatorial run in 2020, he lamented being sidelined and openly spoke about defecting to another party by early 2022.[47]

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[48] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[49][50]

Ahead of the primary, observers predicted an easy Makinde victory.[30] On the date of the primary, the exercise held peacefully at Lekan Salami Stadium in Ibadan and ended with Makinde defeating his sole challenger, former Deputy Governor Hazeem Gbolarumi, by a massive margin: 1,040 to 2. Before the primary, Gbolarumi claimed that his supporters were chased from the venue and after the vote, he rejected the results.[5][51] After the primary, Makinde dropped Olaniyan as his running mate by picking former state Attorney-General Bayo Lawal instead on 7 June;[52][53][54] a few days later Olaniyan decamped to the APC.[55][56] On 18 July, Olaniyan was removed from office by the House of Assembly with Lawal being nominated and confirmed in his place.[57][58]

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Candidates' vote share

  Seyi Makinde (99.81%)
  Hazeem Gbolarumi (0.19%)
PDP primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Seyi Makinde 1,040 99.81%
PDP Hazeem Gbolarumi 2 0.19%
Total votes 1,042 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 6 N/A
Turnout 1,048 96.50%

Minor parties[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Immediately after the primaries in June 2022, observers stated that Makinde and Folarin were focusing on unifying their respective parties. PDP members aggrieved by Makinde's allegedly 'exclusionist' leadership style began to be viewed as a potential liability for Makinde by pundits while analysts also noted that Ezenwo Nyesom Wike–an ally of Makinde–losing the PDP presidential primary might lead to less out-of-state internal party support for Makinde's campaign. Another potential problem for Makinde was his attempts to impeach his Olaniyan for decamping to the APC.[73] Folarin also faced issues with defections as several high-profile party members (including primary runner-up Adebayo Adelabu) switched to Accord or the New Nigeria Peoples Party;[74][75][76] in response, the party formed a peace and reconciliation committee.[77] By August and September, the APC reconciliation process had proceeded but the party continued to fear further loss of support, especially from the relatives of late former Governor Abiola Ajimobi as more losing gubernatorial candidates refused to back Folarin;[78][79] similarly, Makinde's issues with the national PDP continued into the month as well.[80]

Pundits noted that regional unity, not just party unity, would also be required for successful campaigns. Candidates from outside the city of Ibadan, which has produced six of seven elected governors, were passed over for major party nominations as both Folarin and Makinde are from the city.[81] The oft-lamented dominance of Ibadan on Oyo State politics due to its numerical advantage[b] sparked resentment; both major parties were expected to select deputy nominees from outside the city to balance their tickets, both major candidates followed the expectation with Makinde picking Kisi-native Bayo Lawal and Folarin selecting Shaki-native David Oluwafemi Okunlola.

Later in 2022, Makinde continued his disputes with the national PDP by aligning with the Wike-led Integrity Group against the party's presidential nominee—Atiku Abubakar. By December, reports that the Integrity Group planned to endorse a different party's presidential nominee purportedly led the PDP to threaten the group with expulsion. Amid the turmoil, analysts noted that the dispute could greatly affect Makinde's re-election chances as Abubakar allies within the Oyo PDP could support Folarin to remove an intra-party rival.[82][83] However, Folarin continued to face similar internal problems as reporting revealed that former state First Lady Florence Ajimobi was supporting Adebayo Adelabu (A) while several other Oyo APC figures (Minister Sunday Akin Dare, former Minister Abdur-Raheem Adebayo Shittu) did not actively campaign for Folarin. Perhaps most importantly, APC presidential nominee Bola Tinubu also allegedly did not support Folarin by January 2023.[84]

By 2023, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Oyo State voted for Bola Tinubu (APC); Tinubu won 55.6% of the vote to defeat Atiku Abubakar (PDP) at 22.6% and Peter Obi (LP) at 12.2%. Although the result was unsurprising as Oyo is in Tinubu's southwestern base and projections had favored him, the totals led to increased pressure on the Makinde campaign due to Tinubu's wide margin of victory and APC downballot successes. Gubernatorial campaign analysis in the wake of the presidential election noted that Makinde's (alleged) tacit support for Tinubu may inadvertently hurt his own campaign as the move galvanized APC supporters while alienating Abubakar-supporting PDP voters.[85] However, other punditry pointed out intra-APC divides in addition to the resurfacing of Folarin's murder charge from the 2010 NURTW crisis.[86][87]

Projections[edit]

Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[c][88] Tossup 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[d][89]
Makinde 2 March 2023

Conduct[edit]

Electoral timetable[edit]

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[90] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[91]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[e] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[f] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election[edit]

Results[edit]

2023 Oyo State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
A Adebayo Adelabu
AA Lateef Olaniyi Ajekiigbe
ADP Akim Adebola Yusuf
APP Yinusa Kazeem Ayandoye
AAC Mojeed Okedara
ADC Ghaniyu Bamidele Ajadi
APM Adeyemi Oluwaseye Adeniran
APC Teslim Folarin
APGA Adeshina Adewole
BP Okunade Tunde Adeyemi
LP Tawfiq Tayo Akinwale
New Nigeria Peoples Party Joshua Olukayode Popoola
NRM Raymond Adegboyega
PDP Seyi Makinde
SDP Michael Lana
YPP Aduragbemi Euba
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district[edit]

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Adebayo Adelabu
A
Teslim Folarin
APC
Seyi Makinde
PDP
Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Oyo Central Senatorial District[g] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Oyo North Senatorial District[h] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Oyo South Senatorial District[i] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency[edit]

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Adebayo Adelabu
A
Teslim Folarin
APC
Seyi Makinde
PDP
Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Afijio/Atiba/Oyo East/Oyo West Federal Constituency[j] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Akinyele/Lagelu Federal Constituency[k] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Atisbo/Saki East/Saki West Federal Constituency[l] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Egbeda/Ona-Ara Federal Constituency[m] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ibadan North East/Ibadan South East Federal Constituency[n] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ibadan North Federal Constituency[o] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ibadan North West/Ibadan South West Federal Constituency[p] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ibarapa Central/Ibarapa North Federal Constituency[q] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ibarapa East/Ido Federal Constituency[r] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Irepo/Olorunsogo/Orelope Federal Constituency[s] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Iseyin/Kajola/Iwajowa/Itesiwaju Federal Constituency[t] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ogbomosho North/Ogbomosho South/Orire Federal Constituency[u] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ogo-Oluwa/Surulere Federal Constituency[v] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Oluyole Federal Constituency[w] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area[edit]

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Adebayo Adelabu
A
Teslim Folarin
APC
Seyi Makinde
PDP
Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Afijio TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Akinyele TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Atiba TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Atisbo TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Egbeda TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ibadan North TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ibadan North-East TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ibadan North-West TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ibadan South-East TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ibadan South-West TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ibarapa Central TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ibarapa East TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ibarapa North TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ido TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Irepo TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Iseyin TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Itesiwaju TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Iwajowa TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kajola TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Lagelu TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ogbomosho North TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ogbomosho South TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ogo Oluwa TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Olorunsogo TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Oluyole TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ona Ara TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Orelope TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ori Ire TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Oyo East TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Oyo West TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Saki East TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Saki West TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Surulere TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Although Oyewole defected to the PDP and endorsed Makinde on 21 October 2022, the defection was after the window for nominee substitution and thus he remains on the ballot papers.[68]
  2. ^ In the previous three gubernatorial elections, Ibadan voters made up about half of the total electorate; 51% in 2011, 47% in 2015, and 46% in 2019.
  3. ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  4. ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  5. ^ The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[92]
  6. ^ The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[93]
  7. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Afijio, Akinyele, Atiba, Egbeda, Lagelu, Ogo Oluwa, Oluyole, Ona Ara, Oyo East, Oyo West, and Surulere.
  8. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Atisbo, Irepo, Iseyin, Itesiwaju, Iwajowa, Kajola, Ogbomosho North, Ogbomosho South, Olorunsogo, Orelope, Ori Ire, Saki East, and Saki West.
  9. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, Ibadan North-West, Ibadan South-East, Ibadan South-West, Ibarapa Central, Ibarapa East, Ibarapa North, and Ido.
  10. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Afijio, Atiba, Oyo East, and Oyo West.
  11. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Akinyele and Lagelu.
  12. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Atisbo, Saki East, and Saki West.
  13. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Egbeda and Ona Ara.
  14. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibadan North-East and Ibadan South-East.
  15. ^ Comprising the local government area of Ibadan North.
  16. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibadan North-West and Ibadan South-West.
  17. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibarapa Central and Ibarapa North.
  18. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibarapa East and Ido.
  19. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Irepo, Olorunsogo, and Orelope.
  20. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Iseyin, Itesiwaju, Iwajowa, and Kajola.
  21. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ogbomosho North, Ogbomosho South, and Ori Ire.
  22. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ogo Oluwa and Surulere.
  23. ^ Comprising the local government area of Oluyole.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Oyekanmi, Rotimi (26 February 2022). "It's Official: 2023 Presidential, National Assembly Elections to Hold Feb 25". INEC News. Retrieved 27 February 2022.
  2. ^ a b Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  3. ^ Suleiman, Qosim. "It's Official: INEC postpones Saturday's governorship, state assembly elections". Premium Times. Retrieved 15 March 2023.
  4. ^ Ogundapo, Abdulqudus. "It's Official: INEC declares PDP's Makinde winner of Oyo governorship election". Premium Times. Retrieved 19 March 2023.
  5. ^ a b c d e "Makinde wins Oyo PDP guber primaries". Premium Times. News Agency of Nigeria. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Teslim Folarin emerges Oyo APC governorship candidate". Premium Times. News Agency of Nigeria. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  7. ^ Kabir, Adejumo. "INSIDE STORY: How artisans' fight led to ethnic violence in Oyo". Premium Times. Retrieved 17 May 2022.
  8. ^ "For The Record: Full Text of Oyo State governor's inaugural speech". Premium Times. Retrieved 18 May 2022.
  9. ^ "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, AUGUST, 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 18 May 2022. From publicly declaring his assets running into several billions, a feat largely alien to Nigerian politicians, he went ahead to refuse taking monthly salaries, electing to donate same to pensioners in the state. Aside this, the first term governor also took steps to sanitise the state by banning the activities of the highly violent transport unions in Oyo, restoring sanity to the environment by coming hard on illegal structures defacing Ibadan, the state capital.
  10. ^ Olurounbi, Ruth. "Nigeria: Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde spends 22.4% of budget on education". The Africa Report. Retrieved 18 May 2022.
  11. ^ "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, OCTOBER, 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 18 May 2022. Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo in October returned to our Top 5 governors in Nigeria largely on account of his commitment to revamping the education sector in the state.
  12. ^ "TOP 5, BOTTOM 5: How Nigerian governors ranked in July, 2020". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 18 May 2022. Governor Seyi Makinde earns a Top 5 mention having shown a steady commitment to education, with several remarkable interventions in that sector. These include schools upgrade, and access to free education.
  13. ^ "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, NOVEMBER, 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 18 May 2022. Governor Seyi Makinde, the Oyo State governor, again made it to the Top 5 governors in the country for taking concrete steps in combating the menace of corruption in his state and by extension, the country. We recognize that with the prompt signing of a bill establishing the Oyo State Anti-corruption agency, the battle against wanton stealing from the public purse has become institutionalized.
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  15. ^ "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, MARCH, 2020: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 18 May 2022. Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State has been seen severally as a fresh breath in governance in the country. However, his initial handling of the COVID-19 disease pandemic fell short on expectations.
  16. ^ "Not Outstanding! How Nigerian Governors ranked in Oct, 2020". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 18 May 2022. Oyo State was no less removed from the show-off as Governor Seyi Makinde encouraged near brazen disrespect for order with citizens whipped into frenzy as he barred policemen from interfering with the protests even with Oyo teetering towards violent eruptions. We reckon that Governor Makinde could have saved the lives of policemen who were killed if he had been more circumspect in his strict advice to the police to stand off.
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