2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina
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| Elections in North Carolina |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
Although a Southern Bible Belt state, North Carolina has been competitive since the late 2000s, as the state has been narrowly decided in every presidential election since 2008, when Barack Obama very narrowly carried the state and became the solitary Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia 32 years earlier. However, it flipped back into the GOP column in 2012 and has been narrowly won by the Republican candidate in every presidential election since then, being the closest Republican state victory in 2012 and 2020 even as polls indicated a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in the latter. However, at the gubernatorial level, incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper has won both terms, and an upcoming race for a new governor coinciding with the presidential election is expected to be competitive. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina is expected to be targeted by both parties in 2024, with major news organizations marking the state as either a tossup or leaning towards the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump).[2]
Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in April.
Incumbent President Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Primary elections[edit]
Democratic primary[edit]
In North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures.[4] The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate,[5] and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023 deadline.[6]
The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges.[5][7] Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves.[5]
In North Carolina, the "No Preference" option will appear on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. In 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option.[8]
The North Carolina Democratic presidential primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 609,680 | 87.3% | 113 | ||
| No Preference | 88,900 | 12.7% | |||
| Total: | 698,580 | 100.0% | 132 | 132 | |
| Source: [9] | |||||
Republican primary[edit]
The North Carolina Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 793,978 | 73.8% | 62 | 62 | |
| Nikki Haley | 250,838 | 23.3% | 11 | 11 | |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 14,740 | 1.4% | |||
| No Preference | 7,448 | 0.7% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 3,418 | 0.3% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 3,166 | 0.3% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 916 | 0.1% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 727 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 1,075,231 | 100.0% | 74 | 74 | |
| Source: [10] | |||||
Libertarian primary[edit]
The North Carolina Libertarian Primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Ten candidates were presented on the ballot.[11]
General election[edit]
Predictions[edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Lean R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[13] | Tilt R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Lean R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[16] | Tossup | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[17] | Lean R | January 14, 2024 |
Polling[edit]
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon | April 9–13, 2024 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| High Point University | March 22–30, 2024 | 829(RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 42% | 14% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Marist College | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–12, 2024 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| SurveyUSA[A] | March 3–9, 2024 | 598 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Cygnal (R)[B] | March 6–7, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Meredith College | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 39% | 17% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
| Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 40% | 22%[b] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 736 (LV) | – | 43% | 38% | 20% |
| Change Research (D)[C] | September 1–5, 2023 | 914 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Prime Group[D] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 54% | 46% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 45% | 37% | 18%[c] | ||
| Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 40% | 18% |
| Cygnal (R)[B] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Differentiators (R)[E] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Emerson College | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA | September 28 – October 2, 2022 | 918 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Emerson College | September 15–16, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| East Carolina University | September 7–10, 2022 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | August 4–6, 2022 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 39% | 17% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[F] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| East Carolina University | May 19–20, 2022 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 37% | 16% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | 12% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 34% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–12, 2024 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 45% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meredith College | April 11–17, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 39% | 9% | 11% |
| Cygnal (R)[B] | April 7–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 39% | 7% | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | March 14–17, 2024 | 642 (LV) | – | 43% | 39% | 8% | 10% |
| Marist College | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 43% | 11% | – |
| North Star Opinion Research[G] | January 30 – February 4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 32% | 16% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 28–30, 2023 | 1,220 (LV) | – | 37% | 33% | 11% | 19% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 44% | 35% | 8% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 736 (LV) | – | 41% | 38% | 9% | 14% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 33% | 9% | 2% | 14% |
- Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
- Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 34% | 17% |
- Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
- Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 31% | 33% | 19% | 2% | 2% | 13% |
- Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 36% | 33% | 12% | 18% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 40% | 13% |
| Cygnal (R)[B] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Differentiators (R)[E] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 38% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 12% |
- Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[B] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
See also[edit]
- United States presidential elections in North Carolina
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes[edit]
- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
- ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
- ^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NC Values Coalition, a sponsor of the Republican Party
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers
References[edit]
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "2024 Fact Sheet - Running for President" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
- ^ a b c "Biden primary foe Phillips will challenge states where he missed ballot | Semafor". www.semafor.com. December 7, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
- ^ "North Carolina's 2024 presidential primary candidates approved". Carolina Journal -. December 26, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
- ^ "Dean Phillips, a Democrat running for president, says North Carolina is wrong to keep him off ballot". WUNC. December 22, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
- ^ "Our Campaigns - NC US President - D Primary Race - May 08, 2012".
- ^ "03/05/2024 OFFICIAL PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "North Carolina Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ News Staff, FOX Carolina. "Here are the 10 Libertarian candidates in the 2024 NC Presidential Primary". FOX News.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
